Death by a thousand cuts

Roy Morgan have just released their third poll post-election, and its more good news for Labour and more bad news for National. The trend is continuing.

Labour have gained half a percentage point at National’s expense. Interestingly the Greens have dropped down to 11% and New Zealand First have gained half a percentage point, now up to 6% – undoubtably off the back of Winston’s strong performances in the house.

The opposition now commands 51.5% versus the government’s 48.5%. The proportion of New Zealanders who think we’re heading in the right direction has dropped 4 points – not insignificant – and now sits at 57%.

It’s not a huge gain, but it’s certainly movement in the right direction. With the mess the government is finding itself in over dozens of issues, I’d expect this to be the trend for some time to come.

6 thoughts on “Death by a thousand cuts”

  1. Do you not perhaps feel that it will be difficult for Labour to maintain any momentum when Shearer has been so conspicuously absent lately. I mean all you on the news is Russell Norman and Winny when they seek comment from the Opposition

    1. We learned in the last election that votes will not flood to Labour just because opposition policies are unpopular – that is why we saw NZF and Green vote increase and not ours. They were the big winners of the election.

      Part of me want to put down our good polling to the fact that National is making moves on pretty unpopular policy (Asset Sales, s9 etc) and so they are losing votes, but the poll clearly shows that those votes are coming to us! Unlike the election campaign we are taking votes off National – they aren’t going to NZF or Greens.

      This shows that what we are doing now is right – at least for the moment. Shearer is taking a different approach to Goff who tended to make a press statement on every issue, using the same lines. Shearer’s more selective approach seems to be getting traction, but how long that lasts will be revealed in future polls.

      1. I definitely agree that the method of the last three years where Phil Goff would comment on every single issue (no matter how important or otherwise) is not the way to go, but it seems as though it has been days since I last saw David Shearer feature in a 3News bulletin. It also seems to be catching on in the media as seen in Claire Trevett’s column in the Herald today and Patrick Gower’s comment on Firstline that Shearer “looking like the waterboy to Russel Norman and Winston Peters.”

        1. I haven’t been watching much TV News, but the online press news (Stuff, NZH etc) hasn’t been too bad. I read an article yesterday (and I wish I could remember what one it was) but more than half of the article was comment from Shearer. He is picking his battles and that is working well.

          Remember that TV media will show more of Peters because he is a much more inflammatory character, and they have an hour of news to sell!

      2. I wouldn’t get too eager – Green is down, in the last two polls, as much as Labour is up. As I stated below, NACT support (we may as well take them as one party now – which as an Act-sympathetic National supporter makes me sad rather than happy) is steady in this poll. Of course that’s all within the margin of error. The trend is still bad for National and good for Labour.

        I think Shearer has been pretty hidden – I think I’ve seen Iain Lees-Galloway in the media more than David Shearer in the last few weeks, and I only very seldom pick up the Manawatu Standard.

        I also think it is far to early for Shearer to be courting (or going to dinner with, or giving questions to) Winston Peters. He is a very polarising figure, and I’d bet there are Labour voters who would vote National to keep Winston away from the Treasury benches. I know there are National supporters who’d do the reverse.

        Luckily none of it matters right now, I suppose.

  2. I think, with the Crafar Farms, with the talk about asset sales, National is slipping in public opinion. They have not been able to defend themselves well enough in the media. The Crafar Farms is hardly fair – it was not the government’s fault that they acted on the advice they had, and the media spun the court decision as though the govt. had been wrong all along.

    The Crafar Farms has put a dent in their popularity that only time will heal (which it will), but the asset sales are different. I think they will do well, which may vindicate the government. However, if the first rounds do not make the money needed, John Key will have to turn the boat around quick smart, lest National’s vote end up in very shallow water.

    In short, I think this is a bit of a honeymoon phase for Shearer, but National’s got some work to do.

    Also, I disagree that National’s 0.5% dropped and went to Labour. ACT was up 0.5% too, and that sure didn’t come from the Greens.

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