Queensland and proportional elections

Firstly, commiserations to Anna Bligh, her team and my ALP colleagues who fought so hard for Queensland. Also, congratulations to Campbell Newman – the size of his win is impressive indeed.

One thing that has struck me though, is just how un-proportional the results are. For example, Bligh’s Labor Party received 26.6% of the first preference votes, yet they are only predicted to gain seven seats in the 89 seat Parliament (roughly 8% of the seats).

I’ve crunched some numbers and determined what the Queensland state parliament would look like if they used a purely proportional voting system, with a 5% threshold. It’s important to note that there are other systems out there, such as New Zealand’s MMP, which would allow for the two independents to maintain seats and would change the makeup of Parliament. It also demonstrates the size of Newman’s LNP win – even with a proportional voting system they manage to get a majority of the seats in the parliament – something traditionally very rare with systems like this.

It leaves me feeling very grateful that here in New Zealand we have a proportional voting system!

What the current makeup of the Queensland parliament looks like.
What the Queensland parliament might look like with a proportional voting system.
Party % Vote Predicted Actual Seats Proportional Seats
Labour 27% 7 25
Liberal National 50% 78 46
Greens 8% 0 7
Australian 12% 2 11
Others 5% 2 0
Total 89 89

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