Because of the nature of my forecast, polls as old as 90 days will factor into the result. Which means a significant sudden changes won’t be as noticable as they are in raw numbers.
So while Labour is up 9% and Jacinda’s preferred PM ratings will have Bill English very worried, my forecast is very conservative and only shows one seat changing hands from National to Labour (which is still a very good movement).
As the campaign progresses and polling becomes more regular I may look at doing a version of my forecast with a much shorter half-life, so giving significantly more importance to more recent polls.
Let’s do this.