United Future – what their departure means for the maths

I’ve just made a quick update to my Election Forecast to show what Parliament would look like on my current party vote projections assuming Labour wins Ohariu (it makes no difference in terms of seat totals if either National or Labour win the seat).

At the end of the day, Peter Dunne and United Future only held one seat, so his disappearnce doesn’t make much difference. It would mean Parliament’s overhang would reduce so there are only 120 seats – but you’d still need 61 seats for a majority. However it would be one less seat that Bill English could rely on.

Will the 5,000 or so people who cast their party votes for United Future all go to National? Even if they all did – would it make a significant difference? Unlikely.

Not with a bang, but a whimper.

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