Early votes

One of the interesting things about the 2011 general election was that we saw a big increase in the number of advance votes cast. Huge numbers of people cast their vote before election day, so they didn’t have to worry about it on November 26th. In the next few days I’ll take a bit more of a look at the numbers. Were these votes helpful for Labour or did they largely fall in line with the national averages?

I have also been taking a look at what happens in other countries, and how advance voting can form an important leg of a get out the vote campaign. David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s campaign manager, writes about their concerns with advance voting numbers in his book, The Audacity to Win

… because we were so dependent on first-time and sporadic voters, we mustered an intense effort toward executing early vote. This effort consisted of radio ads reminding people of early vote and explaining how it worked; a fusillade of Internet ads to push the concept; repeated e-mail and text messaging to people on our list from these states; and a blizzard of door-knocks and phone calls to remind voters person-to-person about early vote. We also tried to make sure all our volunteers voted early so that they would be freed up on Election Day.

It gives me a sense of relief to hear that, scale aside, what we were doing in New Zealand was very much in line with what the Obama campaign was doing in the states.

Some in political circles argue that the early vote doesn’t matter – that the people who go to the effort to vote early are committed voters who will almost certainly show up on Election Day. We fervently believed that if a hurdle presented itself on Election Day – a family issue; a work emergency; transportation problems – nonhabitual voters are the most likely people to throw in the towel on making it to the polls. These are the folks we relentlessly encouraged to vote early and the yardstick to which we paid closest attention – not how many early votes we were getting, but whose.

In New Zealand, for local body elections you receive a daily update of who has cast their postal ballot during the three-week voting period. It’s very useful to be able to target only those you know have not voted. Extending this to the general election would be fantastic.

As we began moving deeper into early vote, one number caused alarm. Carson came into my office one afternoon. “I’ve been poring over the early-vote data,” he said, “and we seem to have a problem. Or what could be a problem, I should say. We’re meeting or exceeding our early-vote goals in most demographics across most states. But younger voters – under twenty-five-are off quite a bit.”

“Let’s move more money and bodies resources to it,” I replied “and maybe try some different messaging.”

Carson agreed but also suggested doing some research among this group to try to fund out why they were not voting early in great numbers. Did we have a motivation problem, an execution problem, or both?

I green-lighted the research, which yielded two very illuminating findings. First, many young voters were so excited by this election that they couldn’t envision doing anything besides voting for Barack Obama in person at the polling location. When we raised with them the possibility of long lines, or the potential to free themselves up to volunteer, they simply wouldn’t budge. This was a big moment for them and they felt it would seem bigger if they voted at the polls. In any case, they were still dead-set on participating, which relieved us.

This is also a big factor in New Zealand. Many of my colleagues on the campaign trail, despite knowing how valuable their time on election day would be, simply couldn’t bring themselves to cast an early vote. They had worked their guts out on the campaign trail and really wanted to savour the experience of casting their vote in their local polling booth. I know I sure did!

3 thoughts on “Early votes”

  1. Just want to check what is being said in:

    In New Zealand, for local body elections you receive a daily update of who has cast their postal ballot during the three-week voting period.

    Are you saying that the political parties are given a daily list of the names of people who have already voted? If so, this is surely an invasion of privacy.

    1. Not the political parties, but the candidates. In much the same way that they are able to get copies of the electoral roll.

  2. My experience on the campaign trail of people telling me that they were advance voters was that they were generally elderly, some middle aged. I can’t recall many (if any) younger advance voters.

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