There were some fascinating numbers in the first 3 News Reid Research poll, released this evening.
It shows that John Key is dropping down in popularity, and David Shearer has made a strong first impression.
Firstly, the party vote numbers…
National – 46.5% – down 3.3%
Labour – 29.4% – up 3.4%
Greens – 13.3% – down 0.1%
NZ First – 5% – up 1.9%
The next highest party is the Conservatives on 1.4%. Special mention must go to ACT, who are down 0.8% and are only polling 0.2%.
On these numbers, and taking into account electorate seats, it is likely that David Shearer would be the Prime Minister. A combined Labour/Green/NZ First government would have 47.7% versus National’s 46.5% (I’m going to take a punt and assume that the Maori Party aren’t going to survive after Tariana Turia and Pita Sharpes retire at the end of this term).
They’ve also done polling on preferred prime minister. It’s not looking good for John Key who is polling at 45.8% – his lowest ever rating. David Shearer is in the poll for the first time, and his first ever preferred prime minister rating is 10.1%. This is higher than Phil Goff ever got – a very promising sign.
With the continued unpopularity of the Government’s asset sales agenda, their bungling of the sale of the Crafar Farms and the continued instability in National’s coalition partners, it’s going to be a very interesting year!