Labour’s urban targets

After my previous post looking at Labour’s self-declared provincial targets, and potential seats that National might target in 2014, the next natural step is to look at the urban seats Labour might target. Here are some that spring out at me…

Auckland Central

The boundary changes in Auckland Central will make this a harder seat for Labour to win, but certainly not impossible. Over the last two years Jacinda Ardern has continued to work incredibly hard in this electorate, and has a huge public profile.

She’ll likely want to revise some of the campagin tactics she used in 2011, but defeating Nikki Kaye certainly isn’t out of the question next year.

Prediction: Too close to call

Kelston

The second new seat in Auckland, Kelston will be a Labour strong hold. Expect a massive scrap for the selection, with Carmel Sepuloni the likely favourite at this early stage.

Prediction: Labour gain

Maungakiekie

This seat used to be a Labour stronghold, until Carol Beaumont was selected to stand for Labour when Mark Gosche stood down in 2008. The revised boundaries make this an easier win for Labour, though I wouldn’t quite say that victory is certain.

It will be interesting to see if Labour continues to reward failure and re-selects Carol Beaumont, or uses Maungakiekie to bring some much needed fresh talent into Parliament.

Prediction: Labour gain

Hamilton West

Hamilton West is also made more challenging with its new boundaries, however it is still a seat that Labour needs to take seriously, especially if they start to see a lift in the polls.

That said, five time loser Sue Moroney is never going to be able to take the seat for Labour. It’s time that Labour uses Hamilton West to address its talent shortage in the Waikato and get some decent fresh blood in there.

It will be a very hard fight – but it is one Labour needs to take very seriously.

Prediction: National hold

Christchurch Central

In 2011 National managed to win Christchurch Central for the first time in it’s history, with a wafer thin majority of 47 votes.

The new boundaries make this a much safer seat for Labour, and with a decent campaign and an upswing in the polls, the seat is almost certain to return to Labour in 2014.

Again, like Kelston, it’s likely to be a very tough fight for the selection in what is going to over time become a safe Labour seat. I’ve already heard of several challengers, it will be interesting to see who prevails.

Prediction: Labour gain

2 thoughts on “Labour’s urban targets”

  1. Gotta love the Moroney effect. Not only has she lost 5 straight, but also unerringly gifts her victorious opponent a larger majority

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