The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll has been released, I’ve updated my model accordingly.
The updated predicted outcome is exactly the same, in that each party would still get the same number of seats as they did before this poll was released. However, some movement has been observed.
Labour is now up 0.5 per centage points, so they must be very close to getting a 35th seat. Also, both the Greens and Māori Party are also observing an increasing trend in support with both of them increasing 0.4 percentage points and also being close to pickup an additonal seat.
I think this result shows the value in a model like this – significant new movement will still be observed, but will only end up showing in the results if it eventually forms part of a trend. In essence, we’re doing what we can to nullify “rogue polls”.
There are few things that annoy me more than how blogs and Twitter light up after the release of a single political poll.
Pundits will make the huge inferences from statistically insignificant changes, or attribute meaning to an event that occurred after polling finished.
Today I’m proud to release something I’ve been working on for a while, a forecast model for the 2017 New Zealand General Election. It is a mathematical model for analysing polling and determining what Parliament would look like if an election were held today.
Check it out here or via the permalink at the menu on the top of this page.
It takes all available public polling, adjusts for historical data (for instance, known bias’ that individual pollsters have), produces a weighted average based on recency and sample size.
It then produces an estimate of each party’s seat count in the Parliament.
No doubt people will have a ton of questions, hopefully the following will answer them. If you have any further questions, or ideas or suggestions, please either leave them on here, or email me directly on email@example.com
Lastly, my thanks to the many people on both sides of the Tasman (you know who you are) who have helped me with the coding, maths, and design. Hopefully you’ll find it useful!
Continue reading “2017 Election Forecast released”