Okay, so I messed up.
Basically, I made some mistakes with the code behind my election forecast that adjusted for pollsters’ performance. Thanks to Nigel for the email pointing out my mistake.
So, today there are effectively two updates to the forecast. One is a fundimental change the model I’m using to predict the outcome of the election, and the other is a new data point, yesterday’s Colmar Brunton poll.
The overall result is Greens lose a huge amount of support, and National, Labour and NZ First all gain. To the point where NZ First would eclipse the Greens as the third largest party in Parliament.
On my new numbers the only new Green MPs would be Chloe Swarbrick and Golriz Ghahraman, while Denise Roche and David Clendon would lose their seats.
Marama Fox would lose her seat – the Māori Party would be reduced to a single MP.
Labour would be almost 17 points behind National, but that would be a decent improvement on their crushing defeat under David Cunliffe.
Their new list MPs would be Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Jan Tanetti, Willow-Jean Prime, Kiri Allan, Willie Jackson, Jo Luxton and Liz Craig. Their caucus would be 48.6% female – less than the required 50%.
Apologies for the change in my model, if anyone is interested I can rerun previous predictions with my new performance numbers.