Huge movement towards Jacinda and Labour

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the results of two recently released polls – one from UMR which ended three days ago, and one from Roy Morgan which ended on the seven days ago.

Neither of these polls taken individually offer much interesting new information – they both show a closing of the gap between Labour and National as swing voters start moving towards Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party.

However, what is interesting is that adding these two new data points has tipped my election model substantially.

It’s designed so that individual polls can’t have considerable impact, but the sheer weight of support now behind Labour has meant that with these two new polls my forecast for Labour seats has sky rocketed from 36 to 44 – with them coming from National, NZ First and the Greens.

On these numbers, Jacinda Ardern could form a government with the backing of NZ First and the Greens, and Bill English could form a five-headed hydra of a government with ACT, the Maori Party, United Future AND NZ First.

I would be very worried if I was a National back bencher.

 

 

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