My electorate predictions

Electorate level polls in New Zealand are problematic.

They almost always use tiny samples, and pollsters have significant problems knowing the people they’re calling are actually enrolled in the seat they’re asking about.

And taking all that into account, it’s never done regularly so you can’t even look for a simple trend.

So, for those reasons, predicting electorate level results is difficult at best, and it’s why I haven’t built any change in electorates into my Election Forecast.

However, I promised a few people I’d write a list of which seats I think will change hands next Saturday. Here they are:

Auckland Central – Labour gain from National

Ōhāriu – Labour gain from United Future

Maungakiekie – Labour gain from National

Christchurch Central – Labour gain from National

Waimakariri – Labour gain from National

Whanganui – Labour gain from National

Waiariki – Labour gain from Māori Party

 

So there you have it, seven seats I think Labour will pick up on the day. And I no longer think any of Labour’s seats (eg Hutt South, Te Tai Hauauru, Napier) are at risk.

If I’d written this list two months ago it would have been very different!

Election Forecast update – things are tightening

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the results of tonight’s TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll. The update results in Labour gaining two seats, one from National and one from the Māori Party. The Greens are still forecast to be under the 5% threshold.

This weekend I’m going to go through my data and make my predictions for which electorates are going to change hands. I’ll be very interested to see what others guess as well.

Nine days to go.

Election Forecast updated – more bad news for the Greens

I’ve updated my NZ election forecast with the results of tonight’s Newshub/Reid Research Poll. On current numbers either National or Labour could form a government, but both would need the support of NZ First, and Labour would also need the Māori Party.

More bad news for the Greens with their predicted party vote result dropping to 2.5%. Ouch.

Election Forecast updated – and what Parliament would look like

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the results of tonight’s Colmar Brunton poll. While the gap has significantly closed between National and Labour, the Nats are still slightly ahead in my forecast. Both major parties could form a government with the support of NZ First.

I’ve also done a breakdown of who would actually make it into Parliament on these numbers. With Labour polling almost 20 points higher than they did in 2014, it’s a fairly safe bet that they’d pick up additional electorate seats. For the purposes of this I’ve made a guess that they’d pick up Auckland Central, Ōhāriu, Maungakiekie, Christchurch Central and Waimakariri – which were all less than 3,000 votes out of reach in 2014.

If you disagree on which seats would change hands, you can use my National and Labour calculators to see who would make it in at any level of support.

Here’s what Parliament would look like:

Continue reading “Election Forecast updated – and what Parliament would look like”

Election Forecast – the end of the Greens?

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the latest round of polling. Jacindamania is well and truly happening – Labour have made huge gains at the expense of every party.

There is one massive change in this update – the Greens are forecast to only get 4.7% of the party vote, which would mean they would fail to get back into Parliament.

While only one poll has shown the Greens below 5%, my model adjusts for known house biases – this is essentially replicating the phenomnea whereby the Greens perform worse on election day than in polls.

There would only be five political parties in Parliament and the landscape would be significantly different. Both Labour and National could potentially form governments, with the two options for forming a government would be National + NZ First (plus potentially Act and/or the Maori Party), or Labour + NZ First + Maori Party.

Can the Greens lift their game and get back over the line? Quite possibly – my forecast is only showing them 0.3% off the mark.

The next three weeks are going to be fascinating.