Election Forecast – the end of the Greens?

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the latest round of polling. Jacindamania is well and truly happening – Labour have made huge gains at the expense of every party.

There is one massive change in this update – the Greens are forecast to only get 4.7% of the party vote, which would mean they would fail to get back into Parliament.

While only one poll has shown the Greens below 5%, my model adjusts for known house biases – this is essentially replicating the phenomnea whereby the Greens perform worse on election day than in polls.

There would only be five political parties in Parliament and the landscape would be significantly different. Both Labour and National could potentially form governments, with the two options for forming a government would be National + NZ First (plus potentially Act and/or the Maori Party), or Labour + NZ First + Maori Party.

Can the Greens lift their game and get back over the line? Quite possibly – my forecast is only showing them 0.3% off the mark.

The next three weeks are going to be fascinating.

1 thought on “Election Forecast – the end of the Greens?”

  1. It sounds like you’re breaking Nate Silver’s first rule: “Almost all polling errors occur in the opposite direction of what the conventional wisdom expects”

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