Election Forecast updated – and what Parliament would look like

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the results of tonight’s Colmar Brunton poll. While the gap has significantly closed between National and Labour, the Nats are still slightly ahead in my forecast. Both major parties could form a government with the support of NZ First.

I’ve also done a breakdown of who would actually make it into Parliament on these numbers. With Labour polling almost 20 points higher than they did in 2014, it’s a fairly safe bet that they’d pick up additional electorate seats. For the purposes of this I’ve made a guess that they’d pick up Auckland Central, Ōhāriu, Maungakiekie, Christchurch Central and Waimakariri – which were all less than 3,000 votes out of reach in 2014.

If you disagree on which seats would change hands, you can use my National and Labour calculators to see who would make it in at any level of support.

Here’s what Parliament would look like:

National – 54 seats (36 electorate, 18 list)

List Ranking Candidate Electorate
1 Bill English List MP
2 Paula Bennett Upper Harbour
3 David Carter List MP
4 Steven Joyce List MP
5 Gerry Brownlee Ilam
6 Simon Bridges Tauranga
7 Amy Adams Selwyn
8 Jonathan Coleman Northcote
9 Chris Finlayson List MP
10 Michael Woodhouse List MP
11 Anne Tolley East Coast
12 Nathan Guy Otaki
13 Nikki Kaye List MP
14 Todd McClay Rotorua
15 Nick Smith Nelson
16 Judith Collins Papakura
17 Maggie Barry North Shore
18 Paul Goldsmith List MP
19 Louise Upston Taupo
20 Alfred Ngaro List MP
21 Mark Mitchell Rodney
22 Nicky Wagner List MP
23 Jacqui Dean Waitaki
24 David Bennett Hamilton East
25 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West
26 Scott Simpson Coromandel
27 Jami-Lee Ross Botany
28 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country
29 Matt Doocey List MP
30 Brett Hudson List MP
31 Melissa Lee List MP
32 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi List MP
33 Jian Yang List MP
34 Parmjeet Parmar List MP
35 Jonathan Young New Plymouth
36 Jo Hayes List MP
37 Ian McKelvie Rangitikei
38 Simon O’Connor Tamaki
39 Andrew Bayly Hunua
40 Chris Bishop List MP
41 Sarah Dowie Invercargill
42 Nuk Korako List MP
43 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty
45 Shane Reti Whangarei
46 Alastair Scott Wairarapa
47 Stuart Smith Kaikoura
60 Simeon Brown Pakuranga
61 Andrew Falloon Rangitata
62 Harete Hipango Whanganui
64 Chris Penk Helensville
65 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays
66 Tim van der Molen Waikato
67 Lawrence Yule Tukituki
68 Hamish Walker Clutha-Southland

Labour – 51 seats (32 electorate, 19 list)

List Ranking Candidate Electorate
1 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert
2 Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau
3 Andrew Little List MP
4 Grant Robertson Wellington Central
5 Phil Twyford Te Atatu
6 Megan Woods Wigram
7 Chris Hipkins Rimutaka
8 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston
9 David Clark Dunedin North
10 David Parker List MP
11 Stuart Nash Napier
12 Priyanca Radhakrishnan Maungakiekie
13 Raymond Huo List MP
14 Iain Lees-Galloway Palmerston North
15 Jan Tanetti List MP
16 Su’a William Sio Mangere
17 Willow-Jean Prime List MP
18 Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman
19 Jenny Salesa Manukau East
20 Kris Faafoi Mana
21 Kiri Allan List MP
22 Willie Jackson List MP
23 Clare Curran Dunedin South
24 Ruth Dyson Port Hills
25 Poto Williams Christchurch East
26 Louisa Wall Manurewa
27 Michael Wood Mt Roskill
28 Ginny Andersen Hutt South
29 Jo Luxton List MP
30 Deborah Russell New Lynn
31 Liz Craig List MP
32 Marja Lubeck List MP
33 Trevor Mallard List MP
34 Paul Eagle Rongotai
35 Tamati Coffey Waiariki
36 Jamie Strange List MP
37 Anahila Kanongataa-Suisuiki List MP
38 Kieran McAnulty List MP
39 Angela Warren-Clark List MP
40 Helen White Auckland Central
41 Greg O`Connor Ōhāriu
42 Steph Lewis List MP
43 Duncan Webb Christchurch Central
44 Lemauga Lydia Sosene List MP
45 Janette Walker List MP
46 Anna Lorck List MP
N/A Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauauru
N/A Peeni Henare Tamaki Makaurau
N/A Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rawhiti
N/A Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato
N/A Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga

NZ First – 12 seats (1 electorate, 11 list)

List Ranking Candidate Electorate
1 Winston Peters Northland
2 Ron Mark List MP
3 Tracey Martin List MP
4 Fletcher Tabuteau List MP
5 Darroch Ball List MP
6 Clayton Mitchell List MP
7 Mark Patterson List MP
8 Shane Jones List MP
9 Jenny Marcroft List MP
10 Mahesh Bindra List MP
11 Pita Paraone List MP
12 Ria Bond List MP

Māori Party – 2 seats (1 electorate, 1 list)

List Ranking Candidate Electorate
1 Marama Fox List MP
2 Te Ururoa Flavell Waiariki

Act Party – 1 seat (electorate)

List Ranking Candidate Electorate
1 David Seymour Epsom

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