Labour MP calculator

You can use this calculator to simulate the makeup of the NZ Labour caucus post election 2017 depending on various outcomes.

Start by inputting the share of the party vote you think the party will get. Then, select or unselect individual electorate seats you think Labour will win.

Party Vote

Enter the Party Vote you think Labour will get %

Electorate vote - held seats

Electorate name, Labour candidate, margin at 2014 election

Mangere (Sua William Sio, 14,933)

Manukau East (Jenny Salesa, 13,254)

Mt Albert (Jacinda Ardern, 10,656)

Rongotai (Paul Eagle, 9,617)

Wellington Central (Grant Robertson, 8,267)

Mt Roskill (Michael Wood, 8,091)

Mana (Kris Faafoi, 7,953)

Hauraki-Waikato (Nanaia Mahuta, 7,695)

Rimutaka (Chris Hipkins, 6,664)

Manurewa (Louisa Wall, 6,402)

Dunedin North (David Clark, 5,917)

Kelston (Carmel Sepuloni, 5,367)

Ikaroa-Rawhiti (Meka Whaitiri, 4,673)

New Lynn (TBD, 4,557)

West Coast Tasman (Damien O'Connor, 4,094)

Christchurch East (Poto Williams, 4,073)

Dunedin South (Clare Curran, 3,858)

Napier (Stuart Nash, 3,850)

Te Tai Tonga (Rino Tirikatene, 3,554)

Wigram (Megan Woods, 3,330)

Te Atatu (Phil Twyford, 2,813)

Port Hills (Ruth Dyson, 2,228)

Palmerston North (Iain, Lees-Galloway, 2,212)

Te Tai Hauauru (Adrian Rurawhe, 1,554)

Tamaki Makaurau (Peeni Henare, 1,462)

Te Tai Tokerau (Kelvin Davis, 743)

Hutt South (Ginny Andersen, 709)

Electorate vote - unheld seats

Electorate name, Labour candidate, margin at 2014 election

Auckland Central (TBD, 600)

Ohariu (TBD, 710)

Maungakiekie (Priyanca Radhakrishnan, 2,348)

Christchurch Central (Duncan Webb, 2,420)

Waimakariri (Dan Rosewarne, 2,506)

Waiariki (Tamati Coffey, 3,889)



Results

Total Labour MPs 1

Electorate MPs

List MPs

Gender

Male MPs

Female MPs

Seats without an MP selected 2, 3


Appendix

  1. I've done my best to simulate the MMP formula, but it doesn't really work with inputs from just one party. Hence you'll find that Labour's default position is 31 MPs vs the 32 it actually got in 2014. Treat the total MP results as ±1.
  2. In calculating gender totals I've assumed that Andrew Little and Annette King will receive the first and second positions on the list.
  3. A Labour win in Ohariu increases the number of males by 1, as both candidates for selection are male. This is not the case in the other vacant seats (New Lynn, Auckland Central).