Okay, so I messed up.
Basically, I made some mistakes with the code behind my election forecast that adjusted for pollsters’ performance. Thanks to Nigel for the email pointing out my mistake.
So, today there are effectively two updates to the forecast. One is a fundimental change the model I’m using to predict the outcome of the election, and the other is a new data point, yesterday’s Colmar Brunton poll.
The overall result is Greens lose a huge amount of support, and National, Labour and NZ First all gain. To the point where NZ First would eclipse the Greens as the third largest party in Parliament.
On my new numbers the only new Green MPs would be Chloe Swarbrick and Golriz Ghahraman, while Denise Roche and David Clendon would lose their seats.
Marama Fox would lose her seat – the Māori Party would be reduced to a single MP.
Labour would be almost 17 points behind National, but that would be a decent improvement on their crushing defeat under David Cunliffe.
Their new list MPs would be Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Jan Tanetti, Willow-Jean Prime, Kiri Allan, Willie Jackson, Jo Luxton and Liz Craig. Their caucus would be 48.6% female – less than the required 50%.
Apologies for the change in my model, if anyone is interested I can rerun previous predictions with my new performance numbers.
After a tantrum from a candidate, Labour have finally released their 2017 Party List.
I’ve updated my Labour caucus calculator, see the link at the top of this page to check out who would be in and out. Note that the default result setting is what Labour got at the last election, you might want to adjust that to be either my current forecast (34 MPs) or whatever poll you choose to believe.
For what it’s worth, I think it’s a very good list. Will have more thoughts in the days to come.
I’ve updated my polling forecast with the latest data from the only NZ public poll released in April so far (seriously, we’re less than 150 days out from a general election and there has only been one poll this month).
We’re finally starting to see some movement in the forecast, although it is still fairly minor. While NZ First are moving up in their party vote, it’s not yet enough to net them another List MP.
The Greens however have just nudged high enough to grab another List MP, at the expense of National.
This won’t have a significant impact. To form Government on the numbers predicted before this poll was released, Bill English would have had to rely on support from NZ First, that does not change).
Can we just have some more polls, please?
I know it’s a cliché, but in the 2017 NZ general election, social media is going to be more important than ever. Political parties are able to communicate with fewer voters than ever before through traditional means, and the vast majority of the country actively uses social networks.
Any serious candidate or party needs to have a digital communications strategy.
For a little over a year now I’ve been collecting public information on a variety of politicians and their parties via Facebook’s Open Graph API. I’ve got scripts that are constantly running, recording what politicians are posting online, and how many people are liking them.
And now, you can see the data for yourself.
The data is automatically updated every day. It shows how many people like each page, how many people have liked it in the last week, a metric that Facebook uses called Talking About, which basically shows how many people are engaging with the page, and how many posts they’ve done on Facebook.
Please let me know if I’ve missed any public Facebook pages off this, and I’ll add them asap. Note that it takes a week for the new likes metric to be updated, so that’s why it shows zero for some.
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll has been released, I’ve updated my model accordingly.
The updated predicted outcome is exactly the same, in that each party would still get the same number of seats as they did before this poll was released. However, some movement has been observed.
Labour is now up 0.5 per centage points, so they must be very close to getting a 35th seat. Also, both the Greens and Māori Party are also observing an increasing trend in support with both of them increasing 0.4 percentage points and also being close to pickup an additonal seat.
I think this result shows the value in a model like this – significant new movement will still be observed, but will only end up showing in the results if it eventually forms part of a trend. In essence, we’re doing what we can to nullify “rogue polls”.
There are few things that annoy me more than how blogs and Twitter light up after the release of a single political poll.
Pundits will make the huge inferences from statistically insignificant changes, or attribute meaning to an event that occurred after polling finished.
Today I’m proud to release something I’ve been working on for a while, a forecast model for the 2017 New Zealand General Election. It is a mathematical model for analysing polling and determining what Parliament would look like if an election were held today.
Check it out here or via the permalink at the menu on the top of this page.
It takes all available public polling, adjusts for historical data (for instance, known bias’ that individual pollsters have), produces a weighted average based on recency and sample size.
It then produces an estimate of each party’s seat count in the Parliament.
No doubt people will have a ton of questions, hopefully the following will answer them. If you have any further questions, or ideas or suggestions, please either leave them on here, or email me directly on email@example.com
Lastly, my thanks to the many people on both sides of the Tasman (you know who you are) who have helped me with the coding, maths, and design. Hopefully you’ll find it useful!
Continue reading “2017 Election Forecast released”
I have to admit I’ve been a bit surprised with the response to my Labour MP calculator – it seems to be a hit, even though at the moment it’s only working with a modified version of the current caucus rankings.
I’ve now plugged the National Party’s caucus rankings and selected candidates into the back end, and have the first version of my National MP calculator working…
Calculate potential National MPs
There a bug with the gender calculations for the Nats, so I’ve removed it for the time being. They don’t have a constitutional gender requirement so it will create far fewer headaches for them, but I’ll include it as soon as I can get it working as a point of comparison.
Also, the Nats haven’t finished many of their selections, and have been very sporadic about issuing releases when candidates are selected. If you know of any National candidates that have been endorsed but are missing from my list, please let me know.
Thanks to everyone who provided feedback on the first version of the Labour MP calculator I released on the weekend – I’m glad that so many people found it interesting.
I’ve re-engineered it to use a different framework, and it is now capable of producing lists for both Labour and National and showing exactly who would be elected.
Take a look at version two here.
At the moment the List it is simulating is the current Labour caucus rankings – but as soon as the actual list is released I’ll get that up, and I’ll continue to add electorate candidates as they’re selected.
Likewise, I’m working on a version for National which will have their list as soon as it’s released.
One thing jumped out at me while putting this together – just how hard it will be for the Labour Party to meet it’s constitutionally mandated gender balance. At this stage, with so many safe electorates going to men, virtually all of the winnable list slots will have to go to women. There are still two “marginal” seats still to be selected, New Lynn and Auckland Central, which will almost certainly have to go to women if the party is to meet it’s new 50/50 rule.
As always, if you’ve got any feedback please pass it along either via a comment here or via email (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Now that Labour has concluded most of it’s selections for winnable seats at the 2017 election (New Lynn, Auckland Central, and Ohariu are the outstanding ones), we can start looking at what the composition of caucus will be like following the election.
I’ve been brushing up on my coding skills and made a calculator that lets you determine the makeup of caucus based on various party vote percentages and electorate results.
View the calculator here
Having had a play around with the numbers, one thing really stands out to me. If you assume that the electorate seats and party vote share are reasonably static, Labour is well behind it’s rule of a 50/50 gender balance after the 2017 election. It’s going to make the list selection process very interesting.
Please let me know if you’ve got any ideas for changes, or notice something that needs correcting.
Just like in 2014, NZ Labour is leading the way with early selections, they now have seven electorate candidates in place. There is no word on when National’s electorate selections will begin, though I’d be surprised if they started this year.
As I did for the last NZ election, I’ve created a page that lists candidates who have been officially endorsed by a major party to contest an electorate for the 2017 New Zealand election. You can view it here and there is a link permanently at the top of this blog.
Incumbents with a strike through their name indicate they have announced they are not standing for re-election in the seat.
Candidates with a public Facebook Page have that linked from their name.
I’ll also be creating public Facebook lists to keep track of the candidates, you can follow the lists so you can see what they’re up to on Facebook without having to like all their pages. Here’s the first one:
NZ Labour 2017 candidates
If you have any updates for these lists please contact me at email@example.com