Labour Caucus Calculator

Party Vote

Select either the total number of seats you think Labour will get, or the share of the Party Vote you expect them to get. The list this calculator is working with is the current Labour caucus ranking, with retiring MPs removed.

Total seats: or
Party Vote percentage: %

Electorate vote

Select the seats you think Labour will win1. Held seats are already selected. Sitting MPs are deemed to be standing again unless they've indicicated otherwise.

Electorate name, Labour candidate, margin at 2014 election.

Mangere (Su'a William Sio, 14,933) Manukau East (Jenny Salesa, 13,254) Mt Albert (Jacinda Ardern, 10,656) Rongotai (Paul Eagle, 9,617) Wellington Central (Grant Robertson, 8,267)
Mt Roskill (Michael Wood, 8,091) Mana (Kris Faafoi, 7,953) Rimutaka (Chris Hipkins, 6,664) Manurewa (Louisa Wall, 6,402) Dunedin North (David Clark, 5,917)
Kelston (Carmel Sepuloni, 5,367) New Lynn (Deborah Russell, 4,557) West Coast-Tasman (Damien O'Connor, 4,094) Christchurch East (Poto Williams, 4,073) Dunedin South (Clare Curran, 3,858)
Napier (Stuart Nash, 3,858) Wigram (Megan Woods, 3,330) Te Atatu (Phil Twyford, 2,813) Port Hills (Ruth Dyson, 2,228) Palmerston North (Iain Lees-Galloway, 2,212)
Hutt South (Ginny Andersen, 709) Auckland Central (Helen White, 600) Ōhāriu (Greg O'Connor, 710) Maungakiekie (Priyanca Radhakrishnan, 2,348) Christchurch Central (Duncan Webb, 2,420)
Waimakariri (Dan Rosewarne, 2,506) Whanganui (Steph Lewis, 4,505) Papakura (Jesse Pabla, 5,119) Hamilton West (Sue Moroney, 5,784) Tukituki (Anna Lorck, 6,490)
Wairarapa (Kieran McAnulty, 6,771) Rotorua (Ben Sandford, 7,418) Invercargill (Liz Craig, 7,482) Nelson (Rachel Boyack, 7,605) Otaki (Rob McCann, 7,782)
East Coast (Kiri Allan, 7,934) Northland (Willow-Jean Prime, 9,300) Northcote (Shanan Halbert, 9,664) Upper Harbour (Jin An, 9,692) New Plymouth (Corie Haddock, 9,778)
Hamilton East (Jamie Strange, 10,199) Rangitikei (Heather Warren, 11,060) Ilam (Anthony Rimell, 11,898) Kaikoura (Janette Walker, 12,570) Epsom (David Parker, 12,526)
Pakuranga (Barry Kirker, 12,867) Whangarei (Tony Savage, 13,169) Botany (Tofik Mamedov, 13,495) Rangitata (Jo Luxton, 14,104) Tauranga (Jan Tinetti, 14,842)
Clutha-Southland (Cherie Chapman, 14,886) East Coast Bays (Rohan Lord, 15,034) Taupo (Al’a Al-Bustanji, 15,046) Bay of Plenty (Angela Warren-Clark, 15,096) Coromandel (Nathaniel Blomfield, 15,801)
Waikato (Brooke Loader, 16,169) North Shore (Romy Udanga, 16,503) Waitaki (Zélie Allan, 16,668) Taranaki-King Country (Hilary Humphrey, 16,773) Hunua (Baljit Kaur, 17,376)
Helensville (Kurt Taogaga, 18,287) Rodney (Marja Lubeck, 20,230) Tamaki (Sam McDonald, 20,421) Selwyn (Tony Condon, 20,561)


Hauraki-Waikato (Nanaia Mahuta, 7,695) Ikaroa Rawhiti (Meka Whaitiri, 4,673) Te Tai Tonga (Rino Tirikatene, 3,554) Te Tai Hauauru (Adrian Rurawhe, 1,554)
Tamaki Makaurau (Peeni Henare, 1,462) Te Tai Tokerau (Kelvin Davis, 743) Waiariki (Tamati Coffey, 3,889)


Appendix

  1. I've done my best to simulate the MMP formula, but it doesn't really work with inputs from just one party. Hence you'll find that Labour's default position is 31 MPs vs the 32 it actually got in 2014. Treat the total MP results as ±1. To play around with a complete set of numbers, try the Electoral Commission's calculator.
  2. In calculating gender totals I've assumed that Andrew Little and Annette King will receive the first and second positions on the list.
  3. At this stage only the first two List candidates are known (Andrew Little and Jacinda Ardern automatically get positions 1 and 2 as leader and deputy). I've also included David Parker, Sue Moroney and Trevor Mallard as list only candidates as per their current caucus rankings.