National Caucus Calculator

Party Vote

Select either the total number of seats you think National will get, or the share of the Party Vote you expect them to get. This has been updated with the 2017 National List.

Total seats: or
Party Vote percentage: %

Electorate vote

Select the seats you think National will win1. Held seats are already selected. Sitting MPs are deemed to be standing again unless they've indicicated otherwise.

Electorate name, National candidate, margin at 2014 election.

Mangere (Agnes Loheni, 14,933) Manukau East (Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, 13,254) Mt Albert (Melissa Lee, 10,656) Rongotai (Chrisopher Finlayson, 9,617) Wellington Central (Nicola Willis, 8,267)
Mt Roskill (Parmjeet Parmar, 8,091) Mana (Euon Murrell, 7,953) Ohairu (Brett Hudson, 7449) Rimutaka (Carolyn O'Fallon, 6,664) Manurewa (Katrina Bungard, 6,402)
Dunedin North (Michael Woodhouse, 5,917) Kelston (Bala Berram, 5,367) New Lynn (Paulo Garcia, 4,557) Northland (Matt King, 4,441) Epsom (Paul Goldsmith, 4,250)
West Coast-Tasman (Maureen Pugh, 4,094) Christchurch East (Joanne Hayes, 4,073) Dunedin South (Matthew Gregory, 3,858) Napier (David Elliot, 3,858) Wigram (David Hiatt, 3,330)
Te Atatu (Alfred Ngaro, 2,813) Port Hills (Nuk Korako, 2,228) Palmerston North (Adrienne Pierce, 2,212) Hutt South (Chris Bishop, 709) Auckland Central (Nikki Kaye, 600)
Maungakiekie (Denise Lee, 2,348) Christchurch Central (Nikky Wagner, 2,420) Waimakariri (Matt Doocey, 2,506) Whanganui (Harete Hipango, 4,505) Papakura (Judith Collins, 5,119)
Hamilton West (Tim Macindoe, 5,784) Tukituki (Lawrence Yule, 6,490) Wairarapa (Alastair Scott, 6,771) Rotorua (Todd McClay, 7,418) Invercargill (Sarah Dowie, 7,482)
Nelson (Nick Smith, 7,605) Otaki (Nathan Guy, 7,782) East Coast (Anne Tolley, 7,934) Northcote (Jonathan Coleman, 9,664) Upper Harbour (Paula Bennett, 9,692)
New Plymouth (Jonathan Young, 9,778) Hamilton East (David Bennett, 10,199) Rangitikei (Ian McKelvie, 11,060) Ilam (Gerry Brownlee, 11,898) Kaikoura (Stuart Smith, 12,570)
Pakuranga (Simeon Brown, 12,867) Whangarei (Shane Reti, 13,169) Botany (Jami-Lee Ross, 13,495) Rangitata (Andrew Falloon, 14,104) Tauranga (Simon Bridges, 14,842)
Clutha-Southland (TBC, 14,886) East Coast Bays (Erica Stanford, 15,034) Taupo (Louise Upston, 15,046) Bay of Plenty (Todd Muller, 15,096) Coromandel (Scott Simpson, 15,801)
Waikato (Tim van der Molen, 16,169) North Shore (Maggie Barry, 16,503) Waitaki (Jacqui Dean, 16,668) Taranaki-King Country (Barbara Kuriger, 16,773) Hunua (Andrew Bayly, 17,376)
Helensville (Chris Penk, 18,287) Rodney (Mark Mitchell, 20,230) Tamaki (Simon O'Connor, 20,421) Selwyn (Amy Adams, 20,561)


Appendix

  1. I've done my best to simulate the MMP formula, but it doesn't really work with inputs from just one party. Hence you'll find that Labour's default position is 31 MPs vs the 32 it actually got in 2014. Treat the total MP results as ±1. To play around with a complete set of numbers, try the Electoral Commission's calculator.