National Caucus Calculator

Party Vote

Select either the total number of seats you think National will get, or the share of the Party Vote you expect them to get. The list this calculator is working with is the current National caucus ranking, with retiring MPs removed.

Total seats: or
Party Vote percentage: %

Electorate vote

Select the seats you think National will win1. Held seats are already selected. Sitting MPs are deemed to be standing again unless they've indicicated otherwise.

Electorate name, National candidate, margin at 2014 election.

Mangere (TBD, 14,933) Manukau East (TBD, 13,254) Mt Albert (TBD, 10,656) Rongotai (TBD, 9,617) Wellington Central (TBD, 8,267)
Mt Roskill (TBD, 8,091) Mana (TBD, 7,953) Ohairu (TBD, 7449) Rimutaka (TBD, 6,664) Manurewa (TBD, 6,402)
Dunedin North (TBD, 5,917) Kelston (TBD, 5,367) New Lynn (TBD, 4,557) Northland (Matt King, 4,441) Epsom (TBD, 4,250)
West Coast-Tasman (Maureen Pugh, 4,094) Christchurch East (TBD, 4,073) Dunedin South (TBD, 3,858) Napier (TBD, 3,858) Wigram (David Hiatt, 3,330)
Te Atatu (TBD, 2,813) Port Hills (TBD, 2,228) Palmerston North (TBD, 2,212) Hutt South (Chris Bishop, 709) Auckland Central (Nikki Kaye, 600)
Maungakiekie (TBD, 2,348) Christchurch Central (Nikky Wagner, 2,420) Waimakariri (Matt Doocey, 2,506) Whanganui (TBD, 4,505) Papakura (TBD, 5,119)
Hamilton West (Tim Macindoe, 5,784) Tukituki (Lawrence Yule, 6,490) Wairarapa (Alastair Scott, 6,771) Rotorua (Todd McClay, 7,418) Invercargill (Sarah Dowie, 7,482)
Nelson (Nick Smith, 7,605) Otaki (Nathan Guy, 7,782) East Coast (Anne Tolley, 7,934) Northcote (TBD, 9,664) Upper Harbour (Paula Bennett, 9,692)
New Plymouth (Jonathan Young, 9,778) Hamilton East (David Bennett, 10,199) Rangitikei (Ian McKelvie, 11,060) Ilam (Gerry Brownlee, 11,898) Kaikoura (Stuart Smith, 12,570)
Pakuranga (TBD, 12,867) Whangarei (Shane Reti, 13,169) Botany (Jami-Lee Ross, 13,495) Rangitata (Jo Luxton, 14,104) Tauranga (Simon Bridges, 14,842)
Clutha-Southland (Todd Barclay, 14,886) East Coast Bays (Erica Stanford, 15,034) Taupo (Louise Upston, 15,046) Bay of Plenty (Todd Muller, 15,096) Coromandel (Scott Simpson, 15,801)
Waikato (Tim van der Molen, 16,169) North Shore (Maggie Barry, 16,503) Waitaki (TBD, 16,668) Taranaki-King Country (Barbara Kuriger, 16,773) Hunua (Andrew Bayly, 17,376)
Helensville (TBD, 18,287) Rodney (Mark Mitchell, 20,230) Tamaki (Simon O'Connor, 20,421) Selwyn (Amy Adams, 20,561)


Appendix

  1. I've done my best to simulate the MMP formula, but it doesn't really work with inputs from just one party. Hence you'll find that Labour's default position is 31 MPs vs the 32 it actually got in 2014. Treat the total MP results as ±1. To play around with a complete set of numbers, try the Electoral Commission's calculator.