The Greens’ new caucus

Despite goals of 15% and 20 MPs, the Greens only managed to just scrape over 10%, with their only new MP being James Shaw, with Steffan Browning missing out on getting back into Parliament. The Greens traditionally pick up an extra seat off special votes, if they do it will be very interesting to see if Steffan accepts it or takes one for the team so the Greens can at least pretend they have revitalised…

MP Seat
Metiria Turei List
Russel Norman List
Kevin Hague List
Eugenie Sage List
Gareth Hughes List
Catherine Delahunty List
Kennedy Graham List
Julie Anne Genter List
Mojo Mathers List
Jan Logie List
Dave Clendon List
James Shaw List
Denise Roche List

Labour’s new caucus

It’s brutal. My expectations weren’t great, but this loss is much worse than I predicted. Labour’s worst defeat since 1922.

Here is Labour’s new caucus…

MP Seat
David Cunliffe New Lynn
David Parker List
Grant Robertson Wellington Central
Annette King Rongotai
Jacinda Ardern List
Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki Waikato
Phil Twyford Te Atatu
Clayton Cosgrove List
Chris Hipkins Rimutaka
Sue Moroney List
Andrew Little List
Louisa Wall Manurewa
David Shearer Mt Albert
Su’a William Sio Mangere
Phil Goff Mt Roskill
Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau
Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa Rawhiti
Megan Woods Wigram
Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman
Iain Lees-Galloway Palmerston North
David Clark Dunedin North
Poto Williams Christchurch East
Carmel Sepuloni Kelston
Jenny Salesa Manukau East
Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru
Clare Curran Dunedin South
Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga
Ruth Dyson Port Hills
Stuart Nash Napier
Trevor Mallard Hutt South
Kris Faafoi Mana
Peeni Henare Tamaki Makaurau

Gone are Maryan Street, Moana Mackey, Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont.


Grindr on Scottish independence

Check out this rather amusing use of Grindr as a very unscientific poll on Scottish independence. Some very funny responses…

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The Māori seats

One of the pecularities of MMP is that because of the proportional representation provided by the party vote, there is virtually no electoral benefit to winning electorate seats (there are other political benefits, which I’ve touched on previously). So even though it looks like a few seats like Napier and Christchurch Central might come down to the wire, the outcome isn’t going to change who forms government.

The one exception to that is of course parties that use the “coat-tailing” rule – that is, they get less than 5% of the party vote but still get an electorate MP and possibly some list MPs due to winning an electorate seat.

Given the survival of the Māori and Internet Mana parties both rely on winning a Māori electorate seat (as they are both polling consistently below 5%), these seven seats can actually have a very important impact on the makeup of Parliament.

One of the other unique things about the Maori seats is that they are the only electorate seats that regularly get polled. Māori TV have commissioned a series of polls from Reid Research (and TVNZ’s Marae used to also poll). I’ve compiled this years poll results, plus the results from the 2011 election and the 2011 poll results (where I can find them – if anyone has any of the missing numbers please send them through!).

It’s worth taking these results with a grain of salt – the sample sizes are very small (normally 400) and that, combined with poor turnout in the Māori seats make for lots of inaccuracies.

That said, today’s Te Tai Tokerau poll is the tightest yet – with Hone Harawira polling only one point ahead of Labour’s Kelvin Davis. If Kelvin manages to win the seat (and a good turnout operation could certainly help close that gap), then the Hone Harawira/Kim Dotcom farce is over.

Interesting times indeed.

Note: All numbers are candidate, not party vote.

Electorate Candidate 2011 poll 2011 result 2014 poll
Te Tai Tokerau Labour 35 35 37
Māori Party 20 16 9
Mana 42 41 38
Greens - - -
Tāmaki Makaurau Labour 23 35 27
Māori Party 58 40 28
Mana 14 16 14
Greens 3 8 7
Waiariki Labour 22 25 17
Māori Party 56 43 50
Mana 22 32 21
Greens - - 2
Hauraki-Waikato Labour ? 54 57
Māori Party ? 16 14
Mana ? 21 10.4
Greens - - -
Ikaroa Rāwhiti Labour ? 41 37
Māori Party ? 20 18
Mana ? 26 21
Greens ? 11 6
Te Tai Hauāuru Labour ? 30 29
Māori Party ? 48 32
Mana ? 9 10
Greens ? 11 11
Te Tai Tonga Labour 35 41 48
Māori Party 46 32 17
Mana 9 8 9
Greens 10 15 9

Time to show some leadership

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With all due respect to my friends and colleagues who are brave enough to put themselves forward for election, it is inevitable that a candidate will say something regrettable, or downright stupid, during the course of a campaign. A friend of mine with considerable campaign experience in the UK fondly tells us that they had a term that they used to refer to candidates: the legal requirement.

So as painful as it is to see two Labour candidates say downright stupid things in public, it is something that is so predictable that dealing with it should almost just be part of your campaign plan.

The saddest part about the current situation though, is it could easily be turned into a positive for Labour, but Cunliffe doesn’t seem so keen to take the advantage. As reported in Stuff, this is his current reaction…

Labour leader David Cunliffe is refusing to say whether supporters should vote for two of his candidates, after both had unusual outbursts.

Here we can see Cunliffe is trying to tread a very awkward middle ground. He isn’t prepared to cut them loose, but he’s also not outright supporting them.

For a strong leader, the decision should be nearly automatic: condemn them and cut them loose.

It is a simple cost/benefit decision. These are not candidates that Labour desperately needs to win marginal seats, so the potential loss of votes from hammering them is pretty low. On the other hand, by cutting them loose and acting like a decisive leader, Cunliffe could have turned this sorry little saga into a positive for him, and potentially picked up a few party votes elsewhere for acting like a leader.

At this stage in the game, Labour needs to be looking for all the advantages it can get. This story is probably now going to drag on for a couple more days, with Cunliffe looking indecisive. Which is never an attribute people will vote for.

 


I’ve voted.

This morning I cast my vote in the 2014 New Zealand general election, from Australia. Took less than five minutes in total, in fact easier than going down to the local voting booth and waiting in line.

If you’re a New Zealand elector who is overseas, and has been home anytime in the last three years, you can vote too. All the details are at www.elections.org.nz/overseas

Also, if any of my readers are in Melbourne and are keen to help out with a get out the vote phone bank for NZ Labour on September 20th, send me an email and let me know. NZ Election watching party to follow!

photo (6)


NZ Greens – quick on the photocopiers

Environment Victoria have got a rather clever print campaign going in support of renewable energy. This went to print in The Age yesterday… [via Twitter]

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It didn’t take the NZ Greens long to get their solar powered photocopier up and running…

nz_greens

 

Imitation really is the best form of flattery :-)


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